About the bet.
The ultimate bet is that despite everything that will happen in future, people will keep creating and sharing it's creation to the public.
The beneficial of this bet are big technology corporations that will be able to steal all of those creations in the name of the progress of the humanity and provide a service (at a price) to the customers that can download those creations but slightly modified by specialized algorithm called attention.
The technological companies bet is that before governments are called into action people get addicted to AI creations (hopefully government officials get addicted too) and rolling it back will be impossible. The bet is set to more or less 10 years and we're half way. Something around 2030 is when we could expect the AI tax that will be put on all of us to protect artists from corporations. What would mean that we will start paying corporations for stealing.
The result of the winning the bet by corporations will be that governments will be forced to pass laws in favour of big corporations that in fact will rule out governments because the voice will be shifted from freedom of press to freedom of AI. Who will be in charge of AI generation ? Companies with datacenters.
Will it all happen ? Will the laws that will legalize stealing and remove privacy in the name of progres be established. We will see all of it during our lives. We will see it soon.
The first step was made this month May 2025 in UAE. Where American companies are trying to establish it's first for profit AI experimental facility. In the place called stargate they will be able to put 24/7 survielance and alter people opinions with chat. Because initial experiments in US succeeded. The first big aunch will be on the not aware of anything but wanted progress and friendly Arab people. It's a Trojan Horse in the middle east that in the long term is supposed to end wars there. It turns out that computer chips are cheaper than bombs. There is also big investments behind it into best in the world product designer Johny Ive. That will hopefully make people addicted to AI.
Will those investments be the begining of collapse of current civilisation or the bluff will be called ?
Will government permit technology companies to grab everything from people free of charge and we will become technology slaves without any rights or privacy ? The privacy we almost don't have anyways. Of course companies will say that everything we do will be analysed but the data put into the datacenters will be "anonymised". Anonymous data is new safe word after "system" and "algorithm" because not many people understand how statistics works.
You can call me insane at this point because all I wrote is just a speculation. I can't say what will happen or if anything of it is true.
Let's step back from this insanity and start from the begining.
The stealing.
12 June 2017 a couple of people from Google Deep Mind published revolutionaly paper called "Attention is all you need" that more or less started so called AI revolution.
So what exactly attention is ? If you were ever learning a poem you should catch what I will write. You basically start from reading all thing. Then you learn sentence by sentence and then you try to repeat it out loud. If you don't remember the word in between you look up the page. When you are confident enough that you remember everything you try to say whole poem out loud and still sometimes you have those "halucinations" that you put different word instead of correct word that sounds right at this moment of time.
How to port it to machine learning ? The poem gets split to tokens and put into the big table then it's split to the phrases, the phrases are shuffled and attention is trying to guess next token of the poem given couple of previous words - the process is called masking. That's it. It's just packed into mathematical equations so you think it's smart.
The things in between on the complicated chart you can see here are there for to prioritize the data that you put into encoder / decoder to align the mask layer into correct word.
Ordinary person won't spot this dependency that you need a poem to create a poem. Ordinary people don't care about art, they care about entertiment. The fact that entertiment comes from art is just a side thing. But data engineers who prepare data for those models 100% know they're stealing. Their bosses know. The executives knows ( maybe only the smarter ones ). And the CEOs knows. If someones call their bullshit they try to ask smart questions. Doesn't people also need a poem to create a poem ? What is inspiration after all ? Doesn't people also talk with words ? They try to humanize the computer. Humanize dead thing. There were people in history who tried to make "better" humans. How it ended ? Just make this algorithm sound smart because "nobody" understands how it works. We don't know, it must be smart like human thing. Playing dumb is best thing you can do if they give you couple billion and say do more of this. Who wouldn't do it ? Oh look it's being scared. Those media articles are shame to human mind.
The conclusions from all of it should be simple. You need good, well annotaded and aligned data to get the good results. You need good poems to make good poems. And where are good poems ? Behind paywall. This is where the race started. Companies like Meta, OpenAI, Google and Microsoft started stealing the good data (that are books, articles, art etc) to align it's models to be smart enough to sell it or "give a free sample" like every smart drug dealer does. So people get addicted like they got addicted from freedom of passing information over the internet. They will be addicted to passing art. Because it's art.
The outcomes
It turned out that some people can be fooled and they don't won't to spot the difference between computer and human. Acutally there are people who think chatgpt is better than humans so they are leaving their suppose because of chatgpt and stuff like that.
Give me a tool and I find a fool who will use it. There was a problem with this statement in the 90s where the rigors to publish something that can be read by masses was very high. Today in the world of likes and subscribes education doesn't matter. Everyone forgot that in 10 steps scale of the median probability the most likes and subscribes is 5/10. We're all aiming at the world at best 5/10 right now. That means most of people will be living the life of 3/10 and that's pretty miserable life to live.
The only thing that matters right now is the vibe, nice face and nice voice that you more or less agree with. The loudest one, the one that screams your voice. And who people like the most ? The smart people or 5/10 ? I'm not going to continue because I will be in big trouble.
So we have the fools that use the tool. The method was pretty much proof tested during pandemic. We can manipulate the masses in the short term to try to stand our point. If we succeed or not is just another test that 2020 pandemy failed with vaccination rates despite being high in media didn't changed our lives to medical subscribers. Would AI change our lives to become corporate subscriber ? We are during second test right away.
Let's continue the story.
When you put planet size of data into the machine and output "smart" words people won't care that small amount of data used to align it was stolen. After watching "Pirates of Silicon Valley" and how exactly Silicon Valley started from stealing this shouldn't be a big suprise. Yet it is a big suprise. It's a sensation and nobody spotted the details. How would they spot the details if you need police in the company that takes all stolen data to analysis ? Who would do that to multi billion dollars company ?
We all should be addicted to the two week sprints at this point. Whole world was put on this work schedule, because everything is gone after two weeks and becomes background to the mainstream that drills the hole in our brains.
AI is inevitable, AI is new reality, don't be affraid, accept it, we have all those popular people who say it's good for you, it's not good today but look it gets better, you should try it now. Doesn't it sound familiar ?
Second factor
Well there is obviously second factor to all of it's happening. It wouldn't be the case if it were small companies starting from scratch but given that OpenAI is baked by Microsoft and all other companies are multi billion behemoths makes stealing and doing those things easy.
You may ask, what about Chinese ? They don't care because it's not their data that's being stolen.
It's all in agreement of government officials who are either unaware of the fact or to addicted already on their iPhones or Androids. Funny enough China was forced to fork Android and this helped them in the long term because their data won't be AI powered. Maybe they know, maybe it was luck, karma...
You don't believe me ? Point me a government official that don't use Google or Apple phone ? Politics at the end is beaurocracy and beaurocracy likes text. Who is best in writing text right now you ask ? It's AI.
The ultimate bet
So at this point we have almost legalized stealing - in the name of progress of the humanity. We will cure all the cancer !. It's all for your good. That is the ultimate bet technology companies made. That they will be able to steal indefinitely for the greater good. How many times we heard about greater good in the history ? What it all meant ?
The greatest tragedy.
The question is how those people who corporations steal from are feeling ? What they do next ? They need money to buy food because of price hike and economy "shift" to stealing.
Western civilisation is in great derpession right now and everyone says they don't know why. I told you why, because we are lied again. We are lied by celebrities, media, influencers that AI is next big thing. That people will loose their jobs and be replaced by AI.
As a result the creative media is in big depression too. The movie shows are lacking everything. The music is autotune bullshit. The only place where AI is unable to steal everything at this point are games. The games are still booming and I'm not saying about AAA studios that are falling under the weight of mismanagement and AI generated slop but with small / medium game studios that are being born on the arms of those giants.
But that will also come to the end at some point at least partially where things can be automated by stealing and sold cheaply.
The future
The question is will people keep throwing away their art to feed corporate AI ? Will people sell for pennies to buy food so corporate can earn billions ? Will the people just switch professions or move to other place as we seen before and corporate AI will die ?
How many more people will be exploited to annotate data behind the scenes, how many more data will be stolen until the clock stops ticking and there will be no more data to steal and no more people that are capable to annotate things ?
When it will stop, if it will stop ?
There is one thing. If people stop creating we're in big trouble. Very big trouble. Given the post covid analysis about number the venues and events there is a big decline in culture.
If this will progress. At some point the future people if they still exists would need to start literally from scratch. From reading the books because all the knowledge in the internet will be lost or altered, the physical copies might be destoryed to align civilisation to AI. We see that main target of ecology movement is classic art. Who finance it ?
Another big question is wat would governments do ? Will governments push law enforncements to those corporations, acquire evidence, charge executives and put all of those thieves to jail ? The evidence is still there they do it right now on our eyes. But since politics are now influencers with power I doubt somebody would put himself in this position and end the progress of dehumanization and defeminization of humans. We all need to be aligned to the attention algorithm, don't we ? So our moves can be predicted and we are proven that machine things.
I don't think that's how it works but it might work like that in billionaires minds.
Will the peolpe in charge have enough courage to end it ? Will it be stopped and companies like google will vanish ? Or all we can expect is dystopian future.
At the end ARPANET we all use and call Internet is miltary experiment, that we ended to be part of. Mybe AI is also a military experiment. Just read the news who are biggest military contractors. Might be that's Google, AWS and Microsoft.
Maybe governments lobbied by big corporations would enforce AI by law and current Google expansion with Gemini that is being pushed everywhere to capture everything from human life will become new normal ?
At the end who would beileve it is what it is, if these days it's easier to call someone insane make them loose everything and appologise afterwards. I am sorry is free of charge after all.
End thoughts
There are big stakes on the table. Big money invested and powerfull people betting against ordinary humans - again. Because the reality is, after last bet there is always second bet. Right now it's AI, tomorrow it might be something different. People put money on the bet and say I believe in it, forgetting what are the outcomes. If there is money behind it they just want to win. They want prove that they are right. It's with all in our lives, starting from voting for politican representative on school tests and getting a job, ending with finding your soulmate. If AI is improving my life. We bet for the outcomes. You can read all the posts in favour of AI and 90% of them talk about emotions behind using it so you get emotionally attached. It is not about science. That's because the bet is already set, we just wait for outcomes. I can't do anything about it besides writing this bullshit above. You if you're reading it can't do anything about it also. If you're here I can only wish you good luck and hope you bet correctly.
The bet means that sometimes we forget about the process that is in between before we know the result. That sometimes means people who bet loose their mind and don't care what is happening. Their mind is programmed on winning. If they loose the world would collapse (in their minds). They forget that sometimes the world will burn during the process of waiting for outcome. Especially if the steak is trillion dollars.
We will see.
Have fun.